Peg Track Record

Evaluates the token's historical performance in maintaining its intended peg, incorporating quantitative measures of volatility, deviation frequency, and drawdown severity relative to the reference asset.

A two-axis matrix combines annualised peg volatility (daily log return standard deviation × √365) with downward deviation frequency (percent of days trading below a defined threshold). The matrix produces four bands. Partial-data penalties apply to assets with less than 365 days of price history or below a minimum daily volume threshold.

Tier	Reasoning	Evidence
Low volatility, rare deviations	Sustained arbitrage-enforced peg maintenance across a full observation window that included at least one significant market stress event. Reward is bounded because good peg maintenance is the expected behavior, not exceptional.	Mature stablecoins observed through the 2022, 2023, and 2024 stress events anchor the upper band. USDC's recovery following its March 2023 SVB exposure event — depegged to approximately $0.87 and fully restored within 72 hours — demonstrated fast, complete recovery from a discrete shock.
Low volatility, occasional deviations	Broad peg stability with observable but contained dislocations: the structural backstop functioned during discrete shocks even though the peg was briefly tested.	Reflects normal arbitrage friction in liquid markets. stETH and major fiat-backed stablecoins outside stress periods exhibit this pattern. Mid-2024 to mid-2025 baseline behavior for major LSTs anchors this band.
Moderate volatility, recurring deviations	Systematic peg fragility under normal market conditions: continuous noise combined with elevated deviation frequency indicates that arbitrage mechanisms or redemption paths are not fully closing dislocations, even absent acute stress.	Common in early-deployment LSTs and structurally newer stablecoins. Newer LRT protocols in their first 6–12 months exhibit this pattern.
High volatility, frequent or severe deviations	Demonstrated repeated failure of the peg mechanism to perform its core function; price history reveals either fundamental fragility or recurring stress that the structural backstops have not arrested.	UST's May 2022 catastrophic depeg (-99% in 5 days), multiple algorithmic stablecoin failures throughout 2021–2022, Stream Finance's xUSD depeg to $0.26 (November 2025), and Resolv USR's depeg to $0.27 (March 2026) anchor the worst tier.